Is General Petraeus Planning a 2012 Run?

Conservatives around the blogosphere so:

“THE WEEKLY STANDARD has learned that General Petraeus is planning on delivering the commencement address at the University of Iowa in 2010.”

So reports Michael Goldfarb, late of the McCain campaign, on the magazine’s blog.

Petraeus going to Iowa, a state he doesn’t have previous ties to, is going to create a huge amount of buzz about his presidential ambitions because the Iowa Caucuses kick off the whole presidential nomination process. If he does, deliver the address–and Petraeus must know this–it will be seen as a sign that he is thinking about running in 2012.

Previously, it has been thought that Petraeus would not run against a president who had been his Commander in Chief. But there are reports of tension between Petraeus and Obama over both Iraq and Afghan strategy.

Is it just me or there something unseemly about a general gearing a potential presidential run while serving the commander and chief he would be running against. If that’s not a conflict of interest i’m not sure what is.

Admittedly, a Petraeus/Romney or Romney/Petraeus ticket definitely has potential. Maybe even a Petraeus/Gingrich ticket.

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Bending The Ark of History Towards Justice

Regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama personally, I think you have to appreciate the significance of his election. Not in terms of its affect on African Americans, though obviously important, but in terms of its reflection on the greatness that is America.

From slavery to voting rights to the presidency in 100 years is the amazing social progress that comes from, and is caused by, democracy and freedom.

Americans would be wise to remember that when scoffing at the poverty of freedom of those less fortunate around the world.

McCain’s Economic Blunder: Almost Too Funny To Be True…

Haha

A few days ago, the McCain campaign released a letter signed by 300 economists expressing support for the McCain economic agenda. Only…turns out a lot of those economists don’t support the McCain agenda. Or McCain. And weren’t aware the statement — which they were asked to sign months ago, before the campaign had released McCain’s economic plans — was still going to be issued…

John McCain’s remark that he’s no expert on the economy = understatement of the year

The Horse race…a crazy three days of polling

Georgerep at Mydd has a great post on the last three days of polling:

First, the POSITIVE polls for Clinton:

1. ARG in SC showing an absolute blowout

2. Zogby showing Clinton in the lead in Iowa

3. Zogby showing a stable, unchanged race in NH.

4. Marist showing a 14% lead over Obama in NH, unchanged from last month.

5. Union Leader showing a 13% Clinton lead over Obama in NH.

6. Quinnipiac showing Clinton obliterating Obama and Edwards in Florida at 53% to 17% and 7%

7. Quinnipiac showing Clinton at almost 30% over Obama in PA – Clinton 43% – OBama 15% – Edwards 9%

8. The same poll showing Clinton at almost 30% margin over Obama in OH – 45%, Obama 19%, Edwards 13%

9. S-USA California primary- Clinton 50%, Obama 24%, Edwards 16%

10. PPP’s North Carolina poll – Clinton 31%, Edwards 26%, Obama 24%.

11. Quinnipiac showed some tremendously good news for Clinton in head-to-head comparisons between Clinton and all GOPers in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

12. LATimes national poll showing Clinton at 24% margin again – the very latest national poll to be out.

Aside from the very encouraging LATimes national poll the Quinnipiac series of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania stood out, both for their horse race numbers, which show very strong support for Clinton, and also for the very strong head-to-head numbers Clinton shows against all GOPers. I found interesting that Clinton once again beats Edwards in his own home state via the PPP North Carolina poll, Zogby and Marist showed the NH race unchanged from last month, which suggests a stabilizing of her polls in NH.

Not bad. In fact the last three days of polling have been quite good. It seems that the blogosphere, which tends to be anti Clinton and pro Edwards, is right about the media coverage of this week. The press wants a horse race more than they want straight forward reporting. This is why we got the Hillary is inevitable meme throughout the summer and why we’re getting the Obama surge Clinton tumble meme right now. with the Iowa caucus getting closer the media needs to create a buzz.

On the somewhat negative side:

1. ABC/WaPo’s NH poll shows a single-digit race between Clinton and Obama. Clinton 35%, Obama 29%, Edwards 17%.

2. Strategic Vision shows an Obama lead in IA. Obama 32%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 25%.

3. USA Today/Gallup showing a 15% race. Clinton 39%, Obama 24%, Edwards 15%.

Those are some important polls showing Clinton trending downward. However what everyone is missing, because nobody but a political geek like myself reads the internals, is the fact that Clinton’s downward trend in these polls are no associated with Obama trending upward. Gallup even notes that despite Clinton losing a bit of steam, though she’s still up by 15%, Obama has only risen 2%. Bad news for Obama

Why do New Hampshire Polls vary so much?

A lot of people have noticed that there are numerous Iowa polls with conflicting results. However Iowa is not the only place where polls have been all over the place.

HWC, a MyDD commenter has a theory

But, less than half of the WaPost sample for the Democratic Primary consists of registered Democrats 48% versus 52% not registered Democrats.

The last time there were contested primaries in both parties (2000), the split was 65% registered Democrats and 35% not registered Democrats. It was also 62% women, 38% men.

The reason we are seeing polls all over the map in all directions is that pollster are applying different assumptions about the primary electorate. That’s why you can have two polls calling the same random people on the same three days in the same tiny state and get wildly different results. They are applying (or not applying) different weights to the sample.

Do you apply the 2004 weights (when there was, in effect, no Republican primary)? Or the 2000 weights when there were contested primaries in both parties?

This makes a lot of sense to me. It will be interesting to see if more independents will vote in the democratic or republican primary.

A solution to underfunded campaigns: Make your own money!

How poor does a campaign need to get before they start coining their own money? Apparently a bunch of Ron Paul supporters were caught trying to coin their own money . Can you guess what the coins were made out of? You guessed it, Gold, Silver, and Copper:

Federal agents raided the headquarters of a group that produces illegal currency and puts it in circulation, seizing gold, silver and two tons of copper coins featuring Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul.

Agents also took records, computers and froze the bank accounts at the “Liberty Dollar” headquarters during the Thursday raid, Bernard von NotHaus, founder of the National Organization for the Repeal of the Federal Reserve Act & Internal Revenue Code, said in a posting on the group’s website.

The organization, which is critical of the Federal Reserve, has repeatedly clashed with the federal government, which contends that the gold, silver and copper coins it produces are illegal. NORFED claims its Liberty Dollars are inflation free and can restore stability to financial markets by allowing commerce based on a currency that does not fluctuate in value like the U.S. dollar.

“They’re running scared right now and they had to do something,” von NotHaus told The Associated Press Friday. “I’m volunteering to meet the agents and get arrested so we can thrash this out in court.”

Nothing says libertarian revolution like secretly coining your own money. Yeah…that’ll show the federal government. *shakes fist angrily* But yeah, I know…the gold standard would lower the deficit, wash your car and take out your laundry. Hmm…I wonder what Ron Paul would say if someone tried to make a donation to his campaign using Ron Paul coins. I also wonder how many stores were dumb enough to accept these coins.

Megan from Shakesville sums it up best :

FYI: Ron Paul Liberty Dollars are legal currency in Shakesville. They can be used to buy a fucking clue from many of our fine retailers.

Here is where I say something positive about Ron Paul: A Ron Paul rap by Roy Shivers

(Thanks to Mark for this link)

I have to admit. I think this is a very creative and positive way to get a pro Ron Paul message across. And really anyone who can rap about politics gets big points in my book.

Though I am bothered by someone arguing against voting for Obama because white people won’t vote for a black president. I don’t think we should allow our politicial decisions to be made by those with the most questionable ethics in our society. I’d think that of all people a Ron Paul supporter would understand this better than anyone. But it’s a good video nonetheless.