Is General Petraeus Planning a 2012 Run?

Conservatives around the blogosphere so:

“THE WEEKLY STANDARD has learned that General Petraeus is planning on delivering the commencement address at the University of Iowa in 2010.”

So reports Michael Goldfarb, late of the McCain campaign, on the magazine’s blog.

Petraeus going to Iowa, a state he doesn’t have previous ties to, is going to create a huge amount of buzz about his presidential ambitions because the Iowa Caucuses kick off the whole presidential nomination process. If he does, deliver the address–and Petraeus must know this–it will be seen as a sign that he is thinking about running in 2012.

Previously, it has been thought that Petraeus would not run against a president who had been his Commander in Chief. But there are reports of tension between Petraeus and Obama over both Iraq and Afghan strategy.

Is it just me or there something unseemly about a general gearing a potential presidential run while serving the commander and chief he would be running against. If that’s not a conflict of interest i’m not sure what is.

Admittedly, a Petraeus/Romney or Romney/Petraeus ticket definitely has potential. Maybe even a Petraeus/Gingrich ticket.


How do I feel about Iowa? My Thoughts

Apparently people are wondering how I feel about Iowa. Well anyone who’s read my blog or talked to me personally should know that I never expected Clinton to win Iowa. The liberal party activists of Iowa are not really in tune with the moderate progressivism of Clinton retail politics. This is the reason why the Clinton campaign thought about completely skipping Iowa months ago. Not to say that Iowans are wrong and we’re right. I’m just noting that certain politics play better in some places and worse in others. But the point is, that anyone who thought Clinton was going to win Iowa should stop relying on Faux News for their political coverage.

Though its obvious that Obama beating Edwards was the worse case scenario for the Clinton camp. That just goes to show that you can’t rely on a flip flopping “populist” with $400 haircuts to get the job done during crunch time. Thankfully, people like this get what they deserve, as the media and both Clinton and Obama consider this to bea two person race now.

But even with last night’s results there is good news for Clinton. She did get more votes than any other democratic in Iowa caucus history,minus Edwards and Obama. This means her message is connecting with people, she just needs to start targeting her message to younger voters more. She still won older voters overwhelmingly.

I’ll be writing more about my thoughts about Iowa, and where Clinton goes from here. Stay tuned.

And then there were two less…

Joe Biden and Chris Dodd drop out:

According to cable news reports, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, and Mike Gravel have dropped their bids for the Democratic presidential nomination. I had expected to see the first two stay in at least through New Hampshire, but apparently twas not to be.

Update: Per Dan Connor:

This is incorrect. Gravel is still in the race. MSNBC released misinformation.

How fucked up is the Iowa caucus?

A perfect example over at Tapped:

A bit of drama here in precinct 23. The two women with the baby came in about 10 minutes late, and sat quietly in the Hillary camp. A few minutes later, the baby began to cry, and they took the baby out into the hallway. When they come back in to be counted, there’s an uprising from a man in the Obama camp. “People are coming in late!” he shouts.

“They had a baby!” responds a woman on the other side of the auditorium. “It started to cry.”

“I didn’t hear no crying.”

After that, Elaine says the women can’t caucus.

And people laughed when Clinton called the caucus sexists

How The Iowa Caucus Works

I should have posted this earlier but Desmoinesdem, a poster of various liberal blogs and Iowa resident, has a great write up which explains how the Iowa Caucus actually works.

How the Iowa caucuses work, part 1 (basic elements of the caucus system)
How the Iowa caucuses work, part 2 (corrects an error in part 1 and discusses who is over-represented and who is under-represented when delegates are counted)
How the Iowa caucuses work, part 3 (why it’s hard to turn out caucus-goers)
How the Iowa caucuses work, part 4 (more about why caucus turnout is low)
How the Iowa caucuses work, part 5 (on second choices and caucus math)
How the Iowa caucuses work, part 6 (on how precinct captains help their candidates before caucus night)
How the Iowa caucuses work, part 7 (why it’s hard to figure out how well the candidates are doing in Iowa)
How the Iowa caucuses work, part 8 (on the many ways to win your precinct)

How the Iowa caucuses work, part 9 (Arguments against the caucus system)

The backroom deals of Barack Obama

In case you didn’t know, the Iowa caucus is not a typical secret ballot vote. I’ll discuss that later, but one of the most controversial aspects of the caucus is that in order to recieve delegates from a polling cite, a candidate must recieve support of 15% of the caucus goers. This usually isn’t a big deal to 1st tier candidates but it because a significant issue because many second tier candidates lack 15% viability in some areas. When this happens their supporters are forced to choose another candidate that has at least 15% viability. This becomes significant because it leads to backdoor deals like the one that’s taking place between Barack Obama and Joe Biden.


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