Does a Rising McCain Hurt Obama?

One of the thoughts I’ve been kicking around is whether John McCain’s recent surge will hurt Barack Obama. One of the ways Obama plans on winning New Hampshire is by attracting a significant amount of independents to vote for him. Thus far the polls have showed that most independents in New Hampshire are planning on voting in the Dem primary, a fact that would greatly help Obama. However, with McCain “on fire” lately, its plausible that his increased credibility could lead more independants to voting for him like they did in 2000. I get the feeling that many independents are going to return to McCain. What’s worse, for Obama, many of the maverick independents who are going to leave and vote for McCain are likely to be the ones who were going to vote for him rather than Hillary. (The latest UNH poll shows Obama with a 36% to 26% lead over independents.)

With endorsements from the Manchester Union, The Des Monies Register, the Boston Globe and Joe Lieberman, it will be interesting to see where McCain goes from here and how that affects Obama. If McCain wins New Hampshire and can hold out until the Western states start to vote, he stands a chance. Though this reflects more on the GOP field than it does McCain. Romney has religion issues, and the voters he was going after are being taken by Huckabee, Huckabee doesn’t have enough money or infrastructure, Thomspon is lazy and bland, and Giuliani is just dangling in the wind while his poll numbers hit the floor in his “firewall” state Florida.

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