The Horse race…a crazy three days of polling

Georgerep at Mydd has a great post on the last three days of polling:

First, the POSITIVE polls for Clinton:

1. ARG in SC showing an absolute blowout

2. Zogby showing Clinton in the lead in Iowa

3. Zogby showing a stable, unchanged race in NH.

4. Marist showing a 14% lead over Obama in NH, unchanged from last month.

5. Union Leader showing a 13% Clinton lead over Obama in NH.

6. Quinnipiac showing Clinton obliterating Obama and Edwards in Florida at 53% to 17% and 7%

7. Quinnipiac showing Clinton at almost 30% over Obama in PA – Clinton 43% – OBama 15% – Edwards 9%

8. The same poll showing Clinton at almost 30% margin over Obama in OH – 45%, Obama 19%, Edwards 13%

9. S-USA California primary- Clinton 50%, Obama 24%, Edwards 16%

10. PPP’s North Carolina poll – Clinton 31%, Edwards 26%, Obama 24%.

11. Quinnipiac showed some tremendously good news for Clinton in head-to-head comparisons between Clinton and all GOPers in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

12. LATimes national poll showing Clinton at 24% margin again – the very latest national poll to be out.

Aside from the very encouraging LATimes national poll the Quinnipiac series of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania stood out, both for their horse race numbers, which show very strong support for Clinton, and also for the very strong head-to-head numbers Clinton shows against all GOPers. I found interesting that Clinton once again beats Edwards in his own home state via the PPP North Carolina poll, Zogby and Marist showed the NH race unchanged from last month, which suggests a stabilizing of her polls in NH.

Not bad. In fact the last three days of polling have been quite good. It seems that the blogosphere, which tends to be anti Clinton and pro Edwards, is right about the media coverage of this week. The press wants a horse race more than they want straight forward reporting. This is why we got the Hillary is inevitable meme throughout the summer and why we’re getting the Obama surge Clinton tumble meme right now. with the Iowa caucus getting closer the media needs to create a buzz.

On the somewhat negative side:

1. ABC/WaPo’s NH poll shows a single-digit race between Clinton and Obama. Clinton 35%, Obama 29%, Edwards 17%.

2. Strategic Vision shows an Obama lead in IA. Obama 32%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 25%.

3. USA Today/Gallup showing a 15% race. Clinton 39%, Obama 24%, Edwards 15%.

Those are some important polls showing Clinton trending downward. However what everyone is missing, because nobody but a political geek like myself reads the internals, is the fact that Clinton’s downward trend in these polls are no associated with Obama trending upward. Gallup even notes that despite Clinton losing a bit of steam, though she’s still up by 15%, Obama has only risen 2%. Bad news for Obama


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